Weather in New York – 10-Day Forecast and Manhattan Guide

New York City’s weather is famously unpredictable, shifting from mild sunshine to sudden showers in a matter of hours. For residents and visitors alike, knowing what to expect—and how much to trust a forecast—is essential for planning. This guide breaks down the 10-day outlook, tomorrow’s conditions, and the specific weather you can expect in Manhattan and Times Square, drawing on data from the most reputable sources.

Forecasts are constantly evolving, with major providers like AccuWeather, BBC Weather, and the Met Office updating their predictions multiple times daily. The information presented here reflects a snapshot of current forecasts and historical accuracy data, helping you make informed decisions regardless of whether you need Fahrenheit or Celsius.

What is the 10-Day Weather Forecast for New York City?

Key Insights at a Glance

• Short-term forecasts (today/tomorrow) have 90%+ accuracy, while 10-day outlooks drop to 50-60%.
• AccuWeather’s MinuteCast offers the most granular precipitation prediction for NYC.
• BBC Weather uses Met Office data, which is robust for the UK but not inherently superior for US cities.
• Temperatures in Manhattan can run 2–3°F warmer than outlying boroughs due to the urban heat island effect.
• The best time to check NYC weather for the day is 6 AM local time, when morning updates are published across major services.
• According to ForecastAdvisor, Times Square forecasts consistently beat a simple “same as today” baseline of 34% accuracy.
• Average day-to-day temperature changes in the area are around 5.9°F for highs and 5.7°F for lows.

Snapshot Facts: New York City Climate Norms

The 10-day outlook for New York shows a pattern of mild temperatures and frequent rain chances. The following table compares data from AccuWeather, WeatherBug, and Weather Underground/consensus forecasts for the period starting May 8, 2026. Highs range from the low 60s to mid-70s, with precipitation risks varying significantly day by day.

What is the Weather in New York Tomorrow?

Looking at the short-term outlook, the weather for tomorrow focuses on a shift from the current cloudy conditions to a mix of sun and increasing rain. According to the 10-day table, Saturday, May 9 is expected to start mostly sunny but is forecast to become cloudy with a very high probability of rain.

AccuWeather data shows a high of 62°F (17°C) and a low of 52°F (11°C). WeatherBug provides a more detailed breakdown, suggesting daytime temperatures around 64°F (18°C) and nighttime lows near 57°F (14°C). The consensus from Weather Underground indicates a 20% chance of a shower during the day, rising significantly later.

The most critical figure for tomorrow is the 91% precipitation risk reported for May 9. Winds are expected from the south and southwest at 8 to 15 mph, with gusts possibly reaching 25 mph. It is wise to prepare for periods of rain, especially later in the day.

Hourly Forecast for Tomorrow

• 6 AM: 52°F, mostly cloudy, light wind.
• 9 AM: 56°F, increasing clouds, 20% precip chance.
• 12 PM: 60°F, slight chance of a shower.
• 3 PM: 62°F, wind picking up, rain likely.
• 6 PM: 58°F, periods of rain, 91% chance.
• 9 PM: 55°F, rain tapering, gusty winds.
• 11 PM: 52°F, cloudy, lingering drizzle.

For current conditions as of the latest update, New York is experiencing cloudy skies with a temperature of 64°F (18°C), 67% humidity, and a west wind at 8 mph, with visibility at 10 miles. The pressure is 29.81 inHg.

What is the Weather in Manhattan and Times Square?

Weather conditions in specific neighborhoods like Manhattan and Times Square can differ slightly from the broader NYC forecast. The urban heat island effect means Manhattan is often 2–3°F warmer than areas like Central Park or the outer boroughs, especially on clear nights.

The BBC Weather – New York forecast provides a general outlook for the city, but for more precise neighborhood-level data, other sources offer detailed breakdowns. AccuWeather – New York, NY is known for its hyper-local MinuteCast feature, which provides minute-by-minute precipitation forecasts for Times Square. The The Weather Network – New York also provides a dedicated current conditions page for the city. For a broader view, the weather.com – 10 Day Forecast is a reliable data-rich source.

Why Forecasts Can Differ by Neighborhood

The Met Office – New York provides forecasts primarily in Celsius, which is useful for international visitors. However, its data is based on a broader city-wide model. The difference in inputs—such as whether a model uses a Central Park weather station or a Midtown building sensor—can lead to 2-3°F variations between AccuWeather and BBC forecasts.

What is the Temperature in NYC in Fahrenheit?

Temperature is reported in Fahrenheit by default in most US-based forecasts, including those from AccuWeather and WeatherBug. For those accustomed to Celsius, a quick conversion is necessary. For instance, a forecasted high of 64°F is equivalent to approximately 18°C, while a low of 51°F is about 11°C.

UV Index and Rain Chance Today

The UV index and chance of rain are critical details for daily planning. Based on current conditions and the 10-day forecast, today’s UV index is expected to be low due to the cloud cover, while the chance of rain sits at 55% for a late shower. Typical midday UV in New York ranges from 5 (moderate) to 9 (very high) in summer months.

The chance of rain is expressed as a percentage. A 40% probability of precipitation means there is a 40% chance that measurable rain will fall at any given point in the forecast area. On Saturday and Monday, this probability rises above 90%, suggesting a high likelihood of significant rainfall.

How Does Weather in New York Evolve Throughout a Typical Day?

A typical day in May sees temperatures rise from the mid-50s in the early morning to the low 60s by early afternoon. The chance of precipitation often increases through the afternoon as the air warms and becomes more unstable. By late evening, temperatures drop back into the 50s, and winds usually calm down. This pattern is consistent with the current forecast for the week of May 8.

How Certain Are These Forecasts?

• Established information: Today’s forecast has high certainty (95%). The current conditions (64°F, cloudy, 67% humidity) are observed data. The short-term forecast for tomorrow has a moderate-to-high certainty (approximately 80-85%) based on model consensus.
• Information that remains unclear: The 10-day outlook has lower certainty (50-60%). Discrepancies of 5-10°F between providers are common. The 15-day forecast accuracy drops to around 50%, and 30-day outlooks are trend-based with very low certainty (under 30%). No 30-day forecasts were available in this analysis; the longest provided was 14 days from The Weather Network.

Why Do Different Weather Sources Show Different Forecasts?

New York City’s weather is heavily influenced by its coastal location and urban landscape. The National Weather Service New York Office notes that this leads to microclimates across boroughs. The urban heat island effect makes Manhattan warmer, while ocean breezes can cool lower Manhattan. Different forecast models handle these factors differently, which is why AccuWeather and BBC may show a 2-3°F difference. The Met Office, which defaults to Celsius, uses a different global model than US-based services, contributing to further variation.

What Are the Main Sources Saying About Reliability?

New York City’s weather is heavily influenced by its coastal location and urban landscape, leading to microclimates across boroughs.

National Weather Service New York Office

For the most accurate minute-by-minute rain predictions, AccuWeather’s MinuteCast uses a proprietary nowcasting algorithm.

AccuWeather.com

All five top sources—BBC, AccuWeather, Met Office, The Weather Network, and weather.com—are considered reliable. AccuWeather offers the most granular hourly data, while BBC and Met Office are known for their consistency. ForecastAdvisor data for Times Square suggests that most professional forecasters significantly outperform a simple baseline prediction.

What is the Best Way to Stay Updated on NYC Weather?

For the most up-to-date information, check real-time radar and satellite imagery, and sign up for severe weather alerts from the National Weather Service. Exploring average monthly climate data is useful for long-term trip planning. For official warnings and climate data, you can Visit the National Weather Service New York for official warnings and Check average climate data for New York City.

Frequently Asked Questions